Now, Eamonn.. the Next Steps..

Anyone with even a passing interest in politics will recall a particular slogan that Fianna Fail used in advance of the 2007 General Election. It went "Now.. the Next Steps". Bertie Ahern and Brian Cowen told anyone who would listen that they had brought the Country to it's finest economic hour, and that now they were the people who would lead it forward even further.

And my, my, my .. what an interesting journey those "next steps" have proven to be!!

Today, as I pick up the Irish Times, I see that the Labour Party has surged in the opinion polls from 14% up to 24%. Eamonn Gilmore is the most popular leader in the Country. Fianna Fail are in meltdown, and while nobody is foolish enough to think that an election now would be a good thing, it's clear that if one were to be held, Labour would be kingmakers.

Even on a very simple calculation, not allowing, admittedly for the vagaries of Proportional Representation, 24% of the vote could potentially see Labour returning a TD in every one of the 41 Dail constituencies. While accepting that 41 seats is probably unrealistic, there is every possibility that the 'Spring tide' of 1992 could be repeated... i.e. thirty seats plus.

However, if Eamonn Gilmore wants to turn his opinion poll success into real seats, there is something that he needs to do, and do cleary and unambiguously.

He needs to make it known that Labour will not do Coalition business with Fianna Fail.

So far, this is a question that Mr. Gilmore has failed to answer with any clarity. This is unusual for him, as for as long as I have followed politics, there are few who speak with his clarity or directness of language.

In 1992, Dick Spring, with 33 seats, made a massive, unforgiveable mistake, by cutting a deal with Albert Reynolds. In 1997, despite the good performance of the FG/Lab/DL Rainbow in the interim, the party suffered an angry backlash, and saw its number of seats more than halved.

If Eamonn Gilmore wants to ensure todays poll figures are translated into votes, he must start now, and continue at every opportunity until the election comes, whenever it comes, to make it crystal clear, there will be NO deals with FF..

That, for him, is "The Next Step"..