Áras Musings - A Series (2)

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This was meant to be a weekly post - but Janey Mac, 'tis all happening so fast in the last few days that if I don't update it, I'll miss something.

The confirmation last Sunday that Martin McGuinness is now formally a candidate, has changed everything. Simply put, it has frightened seven colours of you know what out of The Establishment. Only weeks after The Establishment, led by the Irish Independent, succeeded in hatchet-jobbing David Norris into leaving the field, along comes someone who scares them even more.

As I said in my last post, Martin McGuinness will mount a very strong campaign, and gain a huge vote. He has a very strong chance of winning. That's not an endorsement, by any means - I will never state in this blog where my vote is going - it's merely a statement of fact. He will win a huge vote for three reasons, as I see it.

(1) There is a swing to Sinn Fein across the board. I know people who voted for them in the General Election, who never voted before.

(2) There ARE people who will happily forget McGuinnesses murky past, and vote for him because of his role in the Peace Process, which only an idiot would deny has been immense.

(3) At present, he is the only Anti-Establishment candidate currently on the ticket.

The combination of those three factors is more than enough to give him a very solid chance of being the next occupant of Áras An Úachtarán, and the prospects of that have caused an outbreak of 'greasy jocks syndrome' to break out across the board.

The only way to halt, or at least hinder McGunness's romp into the highest office in the land, is to split the Anti-Establishment vote, and the only way to acheive that, is to ensure that David Norris's name is on the ticket. Yes, there's every possibility that the two men could transfer votes to each other, but having the two of them in there will split the first preferences, which are all-important in a Presidential poll.

This morning, listening to Junior Minister Brian Hayes on Newstalk, I was reminded of what one of my wisest and most brilliant mentors in politics, said to me many years ago, when I was a total journalistic 'greenhorn'.. Finbarr Kiely said ... "PJ, Politics is not about what is said, so much as it is about what is NOT said.."

Brian Hayes was asked "will Fine Gael now facilitate David Norris's nomination at local Council level, by abstaining from votes next week.?"..

In reply to Ivan Yates... the wiliest of political questioners, he said "we have our own candidate, Gay Mitchell,.although what Councillors do is a matter for themselves.."

My translation of that, is that Hayes is saying "We have our own candidate, Gay Mitchell, but now that he's nominated, and now that we need Norris in there to take votes from McGuinness, then if they abstain, they're not breaking any party rules, because Mitchells candidacy is already decided.."

I think FG know in their hearts that Gay Mitchell is highly unlilely to win the election, but splitting the Anti Establishment vote will keep him in the shake-up and ensure that he at least performs better on the day.

Admitting Norris will acheive that, by cutting into Martin McGuinness's vote.

Todays Prediction.. Norris will be readmitted to the race by the Council route.. because FG , and maybe Labour as well, are crapping themselves over Martin McGuinness.

Todays Observation.. is it just me, or is Mary Davis playing a very stealthy game, by steering well clear of all this nonsense? Dark Horse, still, maybe?

More Áras Musings soon...

Áras Musings - A Series

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It's five weeks next Thursday to the Presidential election, and I've decided to put up a blog each week from now on as we get closer to it, so that I can look back afterwards and see if I was right or wrong. The entry of Martin McGuinness over the weekend makes it all a bit more interesting. McGuinness will conduct a good campaign and poll very well. I state this simply as a fact, and not as a commentary on his calibre or background.. although I suspect that he will prove a very tough combatant for the Sean O'Rourkes of this world. I look forward to meeting him on the campaign trail. For all that is said about him, he's a personable guy, who relates well to people. He will do exceptionally well, attracting a personal vote, not just a SF vote, from people who remember the Troubles and have studied developments in the North over the past number of years in particular.. Can he win? He most certainly can, but I don't think he will. Michael D. will impress greatly at the debating stage. For all his detractors may claim, he is a man of powerful intellect and sharp wit, and this come to the fore at that point. It will win him votes, particularly with the wing of Lab supporters who were originally favouring Fergus Finlays candidature. Don't let anyone kid you that there wasn't strong disagreement in Lab over their choice. Michael D's failing, however, is that he comes across as being 'up himself'.. and that never bodes well. Gay Mitchell is not impressive as a public performer. People will find it difficult to warm to him. He also has a waspish side to him, which will not do him any favours in the confrontational debating arena. Both his opponents and media interviewers will use this as his achilles heel. He gets crotchety and combative when put under pressure .. and could open him to making gaffes .. so that will be targeted mercilessly. I'm not saying that's right or wrong.. I'm just saying it'll happen. Mary Davis needs to be watched very, very closely.. She will have a very tightly organised network of dedicated canvassers, when the hundreds of people who volunteered with Special Olympics in 2003 come out to support her door to door... and they will. I've already spoken to one man about my own age who is organising a team of 12 in a small village! She's also got big money behind her. Davis has been an international organiser at the highest level for a major World movement. That experience will prove priceless. She is also (relatively) untainted by politics. I've met her a couple of times, and find her an impressive, clever, likeable woman. Sean Gallagher won't win. He's a TV celebrity, and yes, a successful businessman, but he is little more. He is also of the FF gene pool, which like it or not, is currently a 'toxic' brand. I sincerely doubt Norris will get the numbers to return, unless Fianna Fáil and Mícheál Martin in particular are forced into the embarrassment of allowing an open vote to avoid meltdown of the PP. Even then, i would have my doubts There's also a very wild, totally left-field prediction out there that they will turn back to Brian Crowley, apologising to him for the Gay Byrne fiasco, and pleading with him to reconsider. It's unlikely, but I'm putting it here to place it on the record that I've heard it. THIS WEEKS PREDICTION.. The contest is between McGuinness & Higgins, with Davis likely to be kingmaker .. HOWEVER .. she will pick up transfers right, left and centre .. AND will have a strong female vote as the only woman in the field (Dana won't be back in a fit!).. and I wouldn't rule her out as a Dark Horse. More Next Monday ..