This was meant to be a weekly post - but Janey Mac, 'tis all happening so fast in the last few days that if I don't update it, I'll miss something.
The confirmation last Sunday that Martin McGuinness is now formally a candidate, has changed everything. Simply put, it has frightened seven colours of you know what out of The Establishment. Only weeks after The Establishment, led by the Irish Independent, succeeded in hatchet-jobbing David Norris into leaving the field, along comes someone who scares them even more.
As I said in my last post, Martin McGuinness will mount a very strong campaign, and gain a huge vote. He has a very strong chance of winning. That's not an endorsement, by any means - I will never state in this blog where my vote is going - it's merely a statement of fact. He will win a huge vote for three reasons, as I see it.
(1) There is a swing to Sinn Fein across the board. I know people who voted for them in the General Election, who never voted before.
(2) There ARE people who will happily forget McGuinnesses murky past, and vote for him because of his role in the Peace Process, which only an idiot would deny has been immense.
(3) At present, he is the only Anti-Establishment candidate currently on the ticket.
The combination of those three factors is more than enough to give him a very solid chance of being the next occupant of Áras An Úachtarán, and the prospects of that have caused an outbreak of 'greasy jocks syndrome' to break out across the board.
The only way to halt, or at least hinder McGunness's romp into the highest office in the land, is to split the Anti-Establishment vote, and the only way to acheive that, is to ensure that David Norris's name is on the ticket. Yes, there's every possibility that the two men could transfer votes to each other, but having the two of them in there will split the first preferences, which are all-important in a Presidential poll.
This morning, listening to Junior Minister Brian Hayes on Newstalk, I was reminded of what one of my wisest and most brilliant mentors in politics, said to me many years ago, when I was a total journalistic 'greenhorn'.. Finbarr Kiely said ... "PJ, Politics is not about what is said, so much as it is about what is NOT said.."
Brian Hayes was asked "will Fine Gael now facilitate David Norris's nomination at local Council level, by abstaining from votes next week.?"..
In reply to Ivan Yates... the wiliest of political questioners, he said "we have our own candidate, Gay Mitchell,.although what Councillors do is a matter for themselves.."
My translation of that, is that Hayes is saying "We have our own candidate, Gay Mitchell, but now that he's nominated, and now that we need Norris in there to take votes from McGuinness, then if they abstain, they're not breaking any party rules, because Mitchells candidacy is already decided.."
I think FG know in their hearts that Gay Mitchell is highly unlilely to win the election, but splitting the Anti Establishment vote will keep him in the shake-up and ensure that he at least performs better on the day.
Admitting Norris will acheive that, by cutting into Martin McGuinness's vote.
Todays Prediction.. Norris will be readmitted to the race by the Council route.. because FG , and maybe Labour as well, are crapping themselves over Martin McGuinness.
Todays Observation.. is it just me, or is Mary Davis playing a very stealthy game, by steering well clear of all this nonsense? Dark Horse, still, maybe?
More Áras Musings soon...
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