Áras Musings - A Series

.

It's five weeks next Thursday to the Presidential election, and I've decided to put up a blog each week from now on as we get closer to it, so that I can look back afterwards and see if I was right or wrong. The entry of Martin McGuinness over the weekend makes it all a bit more interesting. McGuinness will conduct a good campaign and poll very well. I state this simply as a fact, and not as a commentary on his calibre or background.. although I suspect that he will prove a very tough combatant for the Sean O'Rourkes of this world. I look forward to meeting him on the campaign trail. For all that is said about him, he's a personable guy, who relates well to people. He will do exceptionally well, attracting a personal vote, not just a SF vote, from people who remember the Troubles and have studied developments in the North over the past number of years in particular.. Can he win? He most certainly can, but I don't think he will. Michael D. will impress greatly at the debating stage. For all his detractors may claim, he is a man of powerful intellect and sharp wit, and this come to the fore at that point. It will win him votes, particularly with the wing of Lab supporters who were originally favouring Fergus Finlays candidature. Don't let anyone kid you that there wasn't strong disagreement in Lab over their choice. Michael D's failing, however, is that he comes across as being 'up himself'.. and that never bodes well. Gay Mitchell is not impressive as a public performer. People will find it difficult to warm to him. He also has a waspish side to him, which will not do him any favours in the confrontational debating arena. Both his opponents and media interviewers will use this as his achilles heel. He gets crotchety and combative when put under pressure .. and could open him to making gaffes .. so that will be targeted mercilessly. I'm not saying that's right or wrong.. I'm just saying it'll happen. Mary Davis needs to be watched very, very closely.. She will have a very tightly organised network of dedicated canvassers, when the hundreds of people who volunteered with Special Olympics in 2003 come out to support her door to door... and they will. I've already spoken to one man about my own age who is organising a team of 12 in a small village! She's also got big money behind her. Davis has been an international organiser at the highest level for a major World movement. That experience will prove priceless. She is also (relatively) untainted by politics. I've met her a couple of times, and find her an impressive, clever, likeable woman. Sean Gallagher won't win. He's a TV celebrity, and yes, a successful businessman, but he is little more. He is also of the FF gene pool, which like it or not, is currently a 'toxic' brand. I sincerely doubt Norris will get the numbers to return, unless Fianna Fáil and Mícheál Martin in particular are forced into the embarrassment of allowing an open vote to avoid meltdown of the PP. Even then, i would have my doubts There's also a very wild, totally left-field prediction out there that they will turn back to Brian Crowley, apologising to him for the Gay Byrne fiasco, and pleading with him to reconsider. It's unlikely, but I'm putting it here to place it on the record that I've heard it. THIS WEEKS PREDICTION.. The contest is between McGuinness & Higgins, with Davis likely to be kingmaker .. HOWEVER .. she will pick up transfers right, left and centre .. AND will have a strong female vote as the only woman in the field (Dana won't be back in a fit!).. and I wouldn't rule her out as a Dark Horse. More Next Monday ..